General election latest: Minister hangs up on Sky's Sam Coates after being told poll has predicted he'll lose his seat (2024)

Today's poll suggests that in the Conservative heartlands, voters are about to turn on the governing party like never before, Tarama Cohen writes from Godalming, Surrey.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is running in Godalming and Ash, one of the country's most affluent areas.

Conservative since its creation, Mr Hunt's majority - on different boundaries - was down to 8,817 at tzhe 2019 election, ahead of the Liberal Democrats. YouGov's seat by seat poll predicts it could be overturned altogether.

It could be a significant moment of election night - compared with cabinet minister Michael Portillo losing his seat in 1997.

Mortgage rates are a key issue for many voters in this commuter town, and switchers were not hard to find.

Sam and Fi Hayward, who have three children under five, previously voted Conservative but will now back the Lib Dems.

Finance worker Sam - who's natural home is with Conservatives - will be changing who he backs, saying "different issues on our radar now we have a young family".

He is also unimpressed with the government's performance, putting it down to "general incompetence, Brexit hasn't gone their way, COVID hasn't helped".

Fi is also switching, saying "I think it would be better for our family".

At the Godalming Delights sweet shop, new mum Felicity is also switching away from the Tories.

"We're living on savings to pay a massive mortgage", she said, and they've taken their older child out of nursery due to the costs.

Retired teacher Jean said the impact of COVID is still on her mind - including a friend who died "while [politicians] were partying".

She's also concerned about children's mental health, a subject the Lib Dems are campaigning on.

But there was still support for the Conservatives here - and lack of enthusiasm for the alternative.

Retired railway worker Robert Jones said: "I like Jeremy Hunt and Rishi Sunak. I like his apprenticeship scheme, my children's children need a job and all our heavy industries are going."

He was not impressed with the National Service idea - and does worry about Labour.

"Diane Abbott was in, and now she's out. The left always worry me, and the unions - although I was a union man for years - having their sway," he says.

Some voters felt Mr Hunt personally had worked hard as an MP. "He's moderate, and I'm a moderate", said Tory party member David Cooper.

But he was worried about a severe defeat.

This corner of southwest Surrey, a constituency held by former cabinet minister Virginia Bottomley and now the chancellor, has never deserted the Tories, even at the height of New Labour.

If the tide turns here on election night, it will be a sign the once unshakeable Blue Wall is really tumbling down.

The candidates for Godalming and Ash are:

• Graham Drage, Reform UK;
• Paul Follows, Liberal Democrats;
• Jeremy Hunt, Conservatives;
• James Walsh, Labour;
• Steve Williams; Greens.

By Jon Craig, chief political correspondent

The findings of the SkyNews/YouGov MRP poll are a disaster for the Conservatives, a worry for Labour and good news for the Lib Dems and Reform UK.

The forecast of a Tory near wipeoutwill spread panic among Conservative candidates and potentially spark a fresh bout of mutiny against Rishi Sunak from the right of his party.

For Labour, the suggestion that Sir Keir Starmer is heading for a landslide even bigger than Tony Blair won in 1997 will alarm those in the party already fearing complacency.

But for the Lib Dems, the projection that Sir Ed Davey's party is heading for a result to match the heady days of Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy will be a massive confidence boost.

However, the party that will be really delighted is Reform UK - already newly energised withNigel Farage replacing Richard Tice as leader- who will claim that with Labour on course to win, Tory supporters can vote for them.

There will also be consternation in the Tory high command at the forecast that so many of the party's big beasts - led by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt - are at risk of losing their seat.

Mr Hunt is fighting the new constituency of Godalming and Ash - in his favour it's in a part of the affluent Surrey stockbroker belt represented by Conservative MPs since 1910.

But the cabinet minsters who are vulnerable are in seats held by Labour in the Blair and Brown years or the Liberal Democrats in the Ashdown, Kennedy or Nick Clegg years.

Read Jon's full analysis below:

By Gurpreet Narwan, political correspondent

We've just witnessed what is probably the most dramatic moment of the general election campaign so far - Nigel Farage, a figure of fear for the Tories, is entering the fray (read more here).

All eyes will now turn to the polls, where Reform UK is performing at around 12%.

It hasn't made any major breakthroughs so far - and this vote share will not translate into a seat.

However, speaking to Sky News after the announcement, Mr Farage was adamant the party would now ascend and win more than the 3.9 million votes UKIP took in 2015.

It was at that election that Douglas Carswell - after defecting from the Tories - won a seat for UKIP. It is in this seat that Farage is now bidding to be an MP after seven failed attempts to enter the Commons.

Clacton will be viewed as a soft target for Reform. This was a strong Leave voting area and the Conservative candidate, Giles Watling, is a Remainer.

Reform UK is polling above the national average in this seaside town - YouGov and Sky News' MRP poll puts its share here at 19.5%. But the "Farage factor" cannot be underestimated. He could really win here.

All of this will send shivers down the spines of those in Tory HQ, but Sir Keir Starmer may be rubbing his hands with glee.

Polling already suggests that Reform could cost the Tories 100 seats by splitting the right wing vote across the Red Wall and Essex. It explains why the Tories were pushing the message hard that "a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour".

Farage has turned that on its head. The election is a foregone conclusion and the Tories are too divided to be serious in opposition, he says.

Instead, given the Tories have already lost, Farage argues that a vote for the Tories is the real wasted vote.

That's his pitch to voters who he is now inviting to join his "political takeover".

It was a week ago that the government was announcing its plans to reintroduce national service - after a fashion - if they won the election.

The idea is for all 18-year-olds to volunteer at least once a month, and some to join the military for the year.

Since then, pollsters at JL Partners have asked the country for their opinions on the policy.

As part of its survey, it asked 2,013 people to check boxes against answers for which statements they agreed with.

People could tick as many boxes as they want.

Some 32% of people - a total of 651 of the 2,013 - ticked the box saying it made them feel more negative about the Tories.

Meanwhile, 23% - 467 people of the 2,013 - said it made them feel better about the Conservatives.

To break that down, that's 184 more responses that thought badly of the Conservatives after the national service announcement than thought better of it - a nine point gap.

And then 24% of people - 479 - ticked the box saying it made no difference to their views.

Some 12% - 236 - said it made them feel better about Labour, while 3% - 51 - said it made them feel worse about Sir Keir Starmer's party.

And 12% - 243 - said they did not know.

Read more about the national service announcement below.

Sir Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a majority of 194 seats, bigger than what Tony Blair achieved in 1997, according to the first polling projection by YouGov of the campaign.

The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, with the party getting the highest number of seats of any party at an election in history.

At the same time, the Tories are trying to boost ratings by talking about culture wars while Labour is talking about real wars in terms of what they would do for defence. And Nigel Farage has announced he's standing for Reform UK.

On the Sky News Daily, Niall Patterson talks to Sky's chief political correspondent Jon Craig about the poll and today's developments, and to Scarlett Maguire, director of the polling organisation JL Partners.

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

Nick Thomas-Symonds is a shadow minister for Labour.

He is asked by Sophy about the major victory estimated for Sir Keir Starmer by YouGov today.

Mr Thomas-Symonds says: "Not a single vote has been cast in this general election - it hasn't been cast by post, and obviously no votes will be cast on the day until 4 July.

"Now, of course we are confident - but we are most certainly not complacent.

"I've been out all day today, my colleagues are out in their own constituencies and around the country.

"And we will continue to fight hard for every single vote until the close of polls at 10pm on 4 July.

"We will never take the voters for granted."

Grant Shapps says a vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer.

The Tory minister's comments come after Nigel Farage announced he was standing for parliament a little earlier today.

The only possible outcomes on 5 July are either Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak become prime minister, Mr Shapps says.

On backing Reform, he says the party's voters would only end up with the Labour leader "being handed more power to do things you really don't want him to do with this country".

One of the cabinet ministers predicted to lose his seat by today's YouGov poll is Grant Shapps.

Speaking to Sophy Ridge, Mr Shapps says he has "always thought of it as being marginal".

Mr Shapps was the MP for Welwyn Hatfield before parliament was dissolved, and is contesting the seat again.

He says that polling in his seat that took place recently had him down as winning it.

But Mr Shapps deploys one of the most well-worn of political phrases - that "the only poll that matters is the one on election day".

But he admits knowing it is one that is oft deployed, saying he is trying not to sound "too much like a politician".

Mr Shapps is asked about what happened earlier, when he rang Sky deputy political editorSam Coateslive on air.

The defence secretary says he was presented with an "opportunity to go live on air" that "was not entirely planned" - but was pleased to "come on anyway" once Sophy's show began.

You can watch the earlier moment below:

Before hearing from Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, a reminder of what Labour had to say about his brief today.

Sir Keir Starmer said he would be prepared to deploy nuclear weapons if needed to defend the UK.

The Labour leader said thenuclear deterrent programmeis "vital" to the UK's defence so "of course" he would be prepared to use it.

He would not go into detail about what circ*mstances would require him to take that sort of action if he became prime minister.

But his comments show his determination to demonstrate Labour as a "changed party" from when it was led byJeremy Corbyn- a life-long opponent of nuclear weapons.

Read more from our political reporter Faye Brown:

Election analyst Michael Thrasher says YouGov's poll is "pretty grim reading" for the Tories.

The Conservatives are predicted to lose huge numbers of seats, with their lowest vote share ever.

Professor Thrasher says "31 days to save the Conservative Party" is now the brief for Rishi Sunak, and the message he needs to use to rally his MPs and party members.

The Tories are "facing annihilation" if the polls don't change.

But "Sunak's message just isn't cutting through to the electorate," says Thrasher.

"They have to come out with a positive message, and they have to work on converting people who are thinking of voting for these small parties (like Reform) into reverting to the Conservatives."

Nigel Farage standing in Clacton will "concentrate the minds" of Conservatives to erode the base of Reform, he says.

As for Labour, "they don't have to do anything really".

A "safe pair of hands" message looks like being enough to win with the polls as they are.