The Washington Wizards may have a transformative offseason ahead. They want to build on a 34-38 performance that ended in a first-round playoff loss to the Philadelphia 76ers, who wiped them out in five games.
But improving will take inventiveness.
General manager Tommy Sheppard said they don’t want to run it back next season. Well, changes start with the July 29 NBA Draft and continue into trade season and free agency. They have tough decisions to make with All-NBA guard Bradley Beal, as well.
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Our draft expert Sam Vecenie and Wizards beat writer Fred Katz team up to outline the Wizards’ summer.
What will the Wizards do this offseason about Beal, given that he only has one more year left on his contract before he can become a free agent?
Beal is not eligible to sign an extension until October, which means the Wizards will have to trek through the draft and free agency without an official, long-term commitment from their best player. But that doesn’t make them any more likely to flip him for a load of picks and young players come July or August. This team insists the same thing it’s said all along: that it’s building around Beal, 2022 free agency be damned.
The issue for the Wizards is that, even if Beal wants to stay in D.C. long term, he could make the most money by turning down an extension and re-signing in free agency. The largest extension Washington could offer would add four seasons, starting with a just-barely-below-the-projected-max salary in 2022-23, onto his current contract. If he waits until next summer, he could sign for five seasons at a slightly higher starting salary, a hair above $40 million in 2022-23. The extra year means a difference of about $50 million guaranteed over the life of the contract.
In the meantime, the Wizards have kept Beal out of trade talks, and it doesn’t appear they’ll be taking calls, either. Sheppard has insisted time and time again that this remains the three-time All-Star’s team.
“Nothing’s changed for me, for Bradley,” Sheppard said at his season-ending news conference when asked how Beal’s 2022 free agency affects 2021 offseason plans. “We have straight-line conversations. I guess I have to ask you to play back every answer I’ve given you before and play back every answer Bradley’s given. … Like I’ve said, we built this team around Bradley, and that’s our intention moving forward.”
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Of course, if Beal explicitly tells the Wizards before free agency that he doesn’t plan to sign an extension months down the line, the organization has difficult decisions to make. Do the Wizards still hold onto him and risk losing him for nothing in the summer of 2022? Or do they finally change course?
Beal has given the Wizards reason to think he’ll stay. He has spoken with The Athletic numerous times about how he’d rather win in D.C. than win elsewhere. He has signed an extension before, tacking one extra guaranteed season and a player option onto his at-the-time contract in October 2019.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he wants to wallow through his prime on losing teams, either. He and Sheppard share consistent dialog about his future. And Beal told the team at the end of the season he was encouraged by a 17-6 finish, which carried the Wizards from bottom five in the NBA to the playoffs. If he asks out, circ*mstances change, but there’s no indication yet that will happen.
What are the goals this offseason?
First, they need a coach. The search for one started last week when the team announced it had “parted ways” with Scott Brooks, who led the bench for the previous five seasons.
They could use a coach to implement a defensive presence while maximizing the Beal-Russell Westbrook dynamic, assuming those two players remain the starting backcourt. And chances are, they will — because if the Wizards have one overarching goal this offseason, it’s to get better than they were in 2020-21.
They fought through the Play-In Tournament to become the No. 8-seeded team before losing to the 76ers. Next season, they’d like to avoid the Play-In altogether. Of course, they need major changes to get into the Eastern Conference’s top six.
They’ll try to add wing defense and 3-point success. No one sank fewer 3s per 100 possessions than the Wizards this past season and only seven teams made a worse percentage of their long-range attempts. They used only two players who shot above league average from 3-point land in their postseason rotation: Davis Bertans and Raul Neto — and Neto is a free agent this summer. Following a career season, he could cost more than the minimum salary he signed for last offseason, too.
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The defense bordered on the top 10 over the final two-and-a-half months of the regular season, but it still finished 20th in points allowed per possession, and the 76ers destroyed it from all angles during the playoffs. They’ll look for wing players who can guard the perimeter — preferably ones who can shoot, too.
Of course, they’re not loaded with resources, so it could take a shrewd signing, clever first-round pick, crafty trade or all three to bring in the necessary help.
Who are the building blocks outside of Beal?
Westbrook has two seasons remaining on his contract and would be difficult to move if the Wizards wanted to do it. As long as they want to win, he’s more valuable to keep than he is to trade. Chances are, he’s sticking around, which means the core starts with the Beal/Westbrook backcourt.
They’ve invested in their last two first-round picks, too: Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija. There was excitement about the development of Hachimura this season when he improved his 3-point shooting a tad and tightened his on-ball defense. But he still has a long way to go as a team defender, ballhandler, passer, physical presence and consistent contributor. Avdija needs a jumper, as well, and had issues with fouling as a rookie, but the Wizards drafted him for his secondary playmaking from the wing. Maybe a new coach finds a different way to use him after he spent much of this season, which ended with a leg injury, parked in the corners.
Daniel Gafford, who they acquired in a midseason trade, could be a part of the future. He’s only 22 years old and has a couple of team-friendly seasons remaining on his contract. Thomas Bryant may not be recovered from his ACL rupture in time for training camp and is on an expiring deal. The Wizards have always appreciated what Bryant gives them, but between the injury and contract situation, there is a slight uncertainty.
And then there is Bertans, who has four years and $65 million remaining on his deal. He underperformed after showing up out of shape this past training camp, but he also was one of the few shooters on the roster. He reached near 40 percent on 3-point shooting by the end of the season, and the advanced numbers said, despite inconsistent play and defensive issues, that the Wizards were better when he played. But he also is one of many one-way contributors on this roster. Could they try to move him? Sure. But they couldn’t justify dumping his salary with no return. He remains a crucial part of the Wizards’ makeup.
Salary-cap, free-agency situation
The Wizards have a projected $118 million with seven guaranteed players and the currently non-guaranteed Gafford on the books for 2021-22: Westbrook, Beal, Bryant, Avdija, Hachimura, Bertans, Chandler Hutchison and, of course, Gafford. Add in the projected cost of the No. 15 overall pick (about $3.4 million), and that’s $121.4 million, which puts them about $9 million above the projected salary cap heading into free agency and about $16 million below the luxury tax line. Anthony Gill has a non-guaranteed salary of $1.5 million, as well.
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They’ll have a couple of exceptions to play with. The full non-taxpayer mid-level gives them the ability to sign a player to a four-year contract, starting with a $9.5 million salary in 2021-22. The biannual exception is projected to be worth about $3.7 million and can be a two-year deal. They can split the mid-level between multiple players, too, which they’ve done in the past. They have a $2.1 million trade exception, as well.
They have six upcoming free agents: Raul Neto, Ish Smith, Robin Lopez, Alex Len, Isaac Bonga and Garrison Mathews. Mathews is restricted. The rest are unrestricted.
Neto will probably cost more than the minimum salary he signed last offseason after a solid campaign. The Wizards, meanwhile, used the mid-level exception to sign Lopez to a $7.3 million contract last year. He proceeded to put up quality production. He won’t be cheap, either. The team has non-Bird rights on both aforementioned players, meaning they can sign them for deals up to 120 percent of what they were making previously.
For Neto, that still won’t be enough. But it means the Wizards could bring back Lopez without eating into the mid-level exception. That would see him at a salary of $8.76 million. And the Wizards could need a reliable third center, either way. Bryant’s ACL recovery could extend into training camp and Gafford struggled through stamina issues in 2020-21.
An issue, though, is that paying Lopez so much would inch the team closer to the luxury tax before using the mid-level to sign another player. Adding $8.76 million, which is 120 percent of Lopez’s 2020-21 salary, to the aforementioned $121.4 million gets the Wizards up to $130.1 million for 10 players, essentially putting them over the tax. They wouldn’t be able to use the full mid-level exception in that case; rather, they would only have access to the taxpayer mid-level, which is projected to come in around $6 million. That could make a substantial difference in the quality of player they’re able to sign. Is Lopez plus a $6 million wing free agent better than a minimum backup center and a $9.5 million free agent on the wing? Especially given Bryant’s return and Gafford’s emergence? These are all calculations Sheppard and Co. will have to make based on who is willing to sign with them. And that’s before we get to any of the other impending free agents like Mathews, who the team should want to retain given its shooting issues and who won’t be over-the-top expensive.
They could need a third center behind Gafford and Bryant, either way. Bryant’s ACL recovery could bleed into training camp and Gafford struggled through stamina issues in 2020-21.
If the Wizards want to free up space, one way to do it could be to trade Bertans, but obviously, that would create an enormous hole for a team that desperately needs his shooting. Trading Bertans would have to make them better — or, at least, give them the flexibility to make an ensuing move that improves them.
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Mid-level free agents to keep an eye on include anyone who can shoot. Nicolas Batum may be too expensive, but he’s worth a call. A reunion with Otto Porter Jr. might make some sense if the Wizards have any faith in him staying healthy. Porter can knock down 3s despite struggling with injuries over the last few years with Chicago and Orlando. Georges Niang wouldn’t help the team’s defense, but he’s turned into one of the best spot-up shooters in the NBA over the last two years. Tony Snell is a 3-and-D wing that could make sense given how little the team asks its shooters to handle the ball. For the biannual exception, someone like Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk might be worth a flier, given his 40.4 percent mark from 3 in 2019-20.
And then there’s the No. 15 pick.
NBA Draft Big Board for No. 15
On draft night, the Wizards should select a two-way, potential 3-and-D wing who can be trusted as a switchable defender as well as a spot or moving shooter. There are enough of those prospects on the board.
What the Wizards have done since drafting Beal and Porter in 2012 and ’13 is nothing of the sort. Their last three picks (Avdija, Hachimura and Troy Brown) have significant shooting issues. In 2015, they swung a draft-day deal to end up with Kelly Oubre, who hit 36 percent from 3 at Kansas but still had some questions about his overall jumper consistency.
Basically, we don’t know what the Wizards look for in shooters, but we do have a record of them devaluing that skill in prospects. So can they be trusted to fill that need? We’ll see. Let’s take Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Scottie Barnes, Davion Mitchell, Keon Johnson, Josh Giddey, and James Bouknight off the board. None of those players should be available to the Wizards at No. 15.
Moses Moody, Arkansas: Moody would absolutely be a perfect pick for the Wizards. Why? He’s 6 foot 6 with a near-7-foot wingspan. He’s a legitimate shot-maker and a switchable defender, which is something every team is looking for. This would be the easiest player to slot into the lineup. He’s going to be a 37 to 39 percent 3-point shooter who can provide the kind of schematic versatility that any coach would value.
Chris Duarte, Oregon: Duarte is a more ready-made version of Moody. At 23, he probably doesn’t have the shot creation upside that Moody does, but he’s a smarter defender and a crisper shot-maker from a wider variety of different actions right now. This is higher than where most have Duarte, but he’d be a great fit next to Westbrook and Beal if the goal is competing. He’d help them next season.
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Franz Wagner, Michigan: Wagner will be very familiar to Sheppard. The general manager traded for Franz’s brother Moe in 2019 in the cap dump deal that the Lakers needed to sign Anthony Davis. Sheppard was a fan of that Wagner and should be an even bigger fan of this one given he’s the better player. He’s a terrific defender in a team concept and does a great job on the ball against a variety of different players. He’s smart and makes high-level decisions as a passer. And while he’s not a completely consistent shooter yet, I would anticipate he gets there. I would bet that if Wagner is on the board, he’ll be the pick for Washington. He checks so many boxes for them from a need and familiarity standpoint. He might not be there, though.
Corey Kispert, Gonzaga: Kispert has a case as the best shooter in this class. The Wizards desperately need shooting. Sometimes, these things aren’t hard. Many evaluators think of Kispert as a very similar prospect to Joe Harris, in that his mechanics are pristine at 6 foot 7 with a strong frame and great size. It’s just such an easy player to slot in next to Beal and Westbrook.
Alperen Sengun, Besiktas: Look, this is a big man, and the Wizards don’t need more bigs. But the value is good enough at this point to just take him and make it work. He’d be an incredible addition to the frontcourt with the springy, athletic Gafford, as Sengun is a tremendously skilled player with elite hands, a great feel for how to get a bucket and some potential to shoot it. He just won the Turkish League MVP, which is a big accomplishment for a teenager given how strong that league is. I’d just take him and roll with it at a certain point.
Ziaire Williams, Stanford: Williams is a big shot-creator and has an athletic upside at 6 foot 8. But he would be more of a long-term home run swing, as it’s going to take some time for him to get onto an NBA court. He’s very skinny right now (185 pounds), but he has all sorts of twitchy athleticism. Williams has a shot-making upside that could work itself out into being the type of long mismatch wing who can shoot over the top of defenders.
Trey Murphy, Virginia: This is a bit of a reach at No. 15, but Murphy is right around No. 20 to 22 on their board right now (which is high compared to most). At 6 foot 9, he’s athletic, fills their shooting need and can defend multiple positions. Think of him as a better-shooting, but not quite as wiry-strong Trevor Ariza, who was terrific with John Wall for years. This is the skill set the Wizards should be looking for as they focus on the future.
Best realistic outcome: It’s a good bet that Moody, Duarte, Wagner or Kispert will be available. This isn’t rocket science. Take the shooter on the wing.
(Top photo of Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura: Ned Dishman / NBAE via Getty Images)
